Probably Stolen: The Sketchy Shop Sim That Sold Half a Million Copies in Two Days

Probably Stolen: The Sketchy Shop Sim That Sold Half a Million Copies in Two Days

The biggest Steam story of the last two weeks is a game about checking whether the merchandise fell off a truck. I respect it completely.

Everybody knew what the top of the Steam chart would look like last week. Phantom Blade Zero first, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 second, thank you, good night. Then the weekly chart for October 27 through November 3 landed, and sitting in third place, ahead of EA Sports FC 27, Crimson Desert, Dead by Daylight and Football Manager 27, was a $20 indie game called Probably Stolen: Cyberpunk Shopkeeper Sim. ComicBook reported the chart on November 7, and the detail that makes it funny is the fine print: that chart ranks by revenue, not by copies. A $20 game has to move roughly three times the units of a full price release to sit in that seat. Probably Stolen just did it anyway.

The game launched on Steam on October 28, 2026. It is the debut release from Questing Goose Studio, a Montreal based developer, published by tinyBuild, and it is PC only. By the time you finish this article it will have sold more copies than most studios manage in a year, and it did the loud part of that in about 48 hours.

The numbers, in the order they happened

Let me lay the timeline out, because the speed is the story.

Within the first few hours, the game had sold 200,000 copies. tinyBuild CEO Alex Nichiporchik posted the quote himself, per 80 Level’s October 29 report: “200k copies in the first few hours is nuts.” In the same window it passed 80,000 people playing at the same time, inside 90 minutes of launch, and hit second place on Steam’s Global Top Sellers list.

At the 24 hour mark, the developers posted their own Steam news update: more than 350,000 copies sold, more than 320,000 unique players, a peak of more than 112,000 concurrent players, and a spot in the global top 12 most played games on Steam. Those are the studio’s own figures, published on its own store page.

On October 30, two days after launch, Questing Goose announced 500,000 copies sold. Notebookcheck carried that announcement on November 2, along with the SteamDB figure that matters most to me: a peak of more than 152,000 concurrent players on November 1, and second place in both the Trending Games and Popular Releases charts on SteamDB. Half a million copies of a shopkeeping game. People were not buying this one to let it sit in the library. They were playing it in crowds.

One more figure, labeled the way it deserves. GameDiscoverCo’s Simon Carless put sales at 750,000 copies as of November 2, about five days in. That is an industry analyst’s estimate, not a studio announcement, so it sits one notch below the confirmed milestones above. The confirmed floor is 500,000 in two days, which is already absurd. If the estimate is right, the absurdity just has a bigger number on it.

Reviews match the sales. Notebookcheck put the Steam rating at 96 percent positive across more than 7,000 user reviews as of November 2, and ComicBook’s chart piece calls the rating Overwhelmingly Positive. There is no Metacritic critic score for this game, by the way. The critics mostly missed the boat. The players did not.

What you actually do in this thing

You are a former scavenger who talked his way into a storefront on the lower levels of a towering space station, with a generous loan, rising rent, and factions watching your counter. That is the setup from the game’s own Steam page, and the page is cheerfully honest about the business model: your best margins live in legal gray zones.

You buy goods, inspect them, craft, and resell them. You can start as a gunsmith, a chemist, a water merchant, a fence, a farmer, or from absolute rock bottom, and each trade carries its own way of ruining you. Weapons bring inspections. Water needs testing and filtering. Contraband brings raids. You can purify water, grow crops, build production chains, chase licenses for the underground market, hide the stolen stock when Security comes knocking, or bribe your way out when they catch you anyway. Every customer is a coin flip, too. The person across the counter might be a security officer fishing for evidence, a revolutionary looking for leverage, or a fallen elite testing whether you are useful. Sell, refuse, report, or look away. Someone is always taking notes.

Coverage keeps landing on the same comparison, and it fits: 80 Level called it Cyberpunk 2077 meets Papers, Please. It is a counter, a queue of strangers, and a daily decision about how much trouble your rent money is worth.

Why this one blew up and a thousand others did not

The lazy version of this story is that a weird game got lucky. The receipts say the luck was manufactured months earlier. tinyBuild reported, via 80 Level, that the demo pulled in more than 660,000 players, held a 98 percent positive rating, pushed close to 40,000 concurrent players during Steam Next Fest, and stacked up more than 500,000 wishlists before launch day. Half a million people had already raised a hand. Launch day was the second act, not the first.

Price did the rest. The game costs $19.99, with a 10 percent launch discount taking it to $17.99 through November 11. GameDiscoverCo also credited hand picked regional pricing for the game’s strength in China, where it sells for 55 yuan, about $8. That part is analyst reading, labeled as such, but it lines up with the wishlist map tinyBuild described. Cheap enough to impulse buy, deep enough to hold 152,000 people at once, and riding a demo wave most indies would trade a kidney for. That is not luck. That is a runway.

The honest caveats exist, and they are in the reviews for anyone to read. Notebookcheck noted players complaining that the loop turns repetitive over time, plus criticism of the user interface and some minor technical issues. DualShockers, reviewing it on launch day, called the day to day running of the shop monotonous while still calling the debut impressive. Both things can be true. A game can be a little repetitive and still be the exact loop half a million people wanted this month. Steam Deck players should also know it is rated Playable, not Verified, per the store page, and no console version has been announced.

My take

This is the exact kind of game this site’s indie coverage exists for. Not a famous name coasting on a franchise. A first release, credited by GameDiscoverCo to solo developer Bei Ning Pan, about running a morally flexible pawnshop on a space station, and it walked into the most crowded launch season in years, with a Zelda remake on November 5 and a certain game from Rockstar landing on November 19, and it still took third place on a revenue chart full of giants.

Publishers spend fortunes trying to buy this outcome and usually get a nice trailer and a shrug. Questing Goose got it with a demo, a fair price, and a premise you can explain in one sentence at a bus stop: sell the sketchy stuff, pay the rent, do not get raided. If the GameDiscoverCo estimate holds, it is closing on a million copies before its launch discount even ends on November 11.

Probably stolen. Definitely sold.

Sources

ComicBook, November 7, 2026, read in full: Probably Stolen finished third on Steam’s weekly top sellers by revenue for October 27 through November 3, behind Phantom Blade Zero and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 and ahead of Moonsweepers, EA Sports FC 27, Crimson Desert, Dead by Daylight, Final Fantasy Resonance and Football Manager 27; the chart is ranked by revenue, so a $20 game needs roughly three to three and a half times the units of a full price game; 96 percent approval across 3,397 reviews, Overwhelmingly Positive, debut release from Questing Goose Studio with publisher tinyBuild, PC only, Steam Deck Playable but not Verified.

Questing Goose Studio, Steam news post, October 2026: more than 350,000 copies sold in the first 24 hours, more than 320,000 unique players, more than 112,000 peak concurrent players, global top 12 most played on Steam.

Notebookcheck, November 2, 2026, read in full: the developer announced 500,000 copies sold on October 30, two days after release; SteamDB peak of more than 152,000 concurrent players on November 1, second in Trending Games and Popular Releases; 96 percent of more than 7,000 Steam reviews positive; normal price $19.99 with a 10 percent launch discount to $17.99 until November 11; player complaints about repetition, the user interface and minor technical issues; screenshots credited to tinyBuild.

80 Level, October 29, 2026, read in full: 200,000 copies sold in the first hours; more than 80,000 concurrent players within 90 minutes, peak later over 86,000; second in Global Top Sellers; tinyBuild CEO Alex Nichiporchik quote; demo figures from tinyBuild of more than 660,000 demo players, 98 percent positive, close to 40,000 concurrent during Steam Next Fest and more than 500,000 wishlists; Montreal based Questing Goose Studio; the Cyberpunk 2077 meets Papers, Please framing; gameplay roles including gunsmith, chemist, water merchant, farmer and fence.

GameDiscoverCo, via Simon Carless, November 3, 2026, as summarized in launch coverage checked November 7: sales estimate of 750,000 copies as of November 2 (REPORTED estimate, not a studio announcement); the game credited to solo developer Bei Ning Pan; China price of 55 yuan, about $8, and long play sessions keeping concurrent counts high. All labeled as analyst material in the body.

Steam store page for Probably Stolen: Cyberpunk Shopkeeper Sim, checked November 7, 2026: the former scavenger setup, the generous loan and rising rent, factions watching, starting trades, inspection and crafting systems, contraband and bribery, production chains and underground market licenses, developed by Questing Goose Studio and published by tinyBuild.

DualShockers, October 28, 2026: launch day review calling the shopkeeping loop repetitive and monotonous in stretches while rating the debut impressive for a first title; Canada based developer, PC only, Steam Deck Playable.

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